Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

The model simulates two phases. In the accumulation phase it adds your annual BTC purchases each year, growing the BTC price at your expected growth rate. At retirement it converts all BTC to a USD balance at the projected price. In the drawdown phase it sells enough BTC each year to cover your inflation-adjusted expenses (after capital gains tax). If BTC reaches zero before your life expectancy, the model returns 'Funds run out'.

This is the most sensitive input and you should model multiple scenarios. Conservative: 10-15%/yr. Moderate: 20-30%/yr (Bitcoin's 4-year CAGR over its last three cycles). Aggressive: 40%+/yr. The higher the growth rate, the smaller the BTC stack you need. Running the calculator at 10%, 20%, and 30% gives you a useful range of outcomes.

The model adjusts your annual expenses at retirement for inflation every year using compound inflation: Budget at retirement = Annual expenses × (1 + inflation rate)^years to retirement. Then in the drawdown phase, expenses continue inflating each year. The default 3%/yr roughly matches historical US CPI. Adjust upward if you expect higher inflation.

In most countries long-term capital gains on Bitcoin are taxed at a lower rate than income. In the US, long-term rates are 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on income. A common planning rate is 15-20%. The model divides your annual expense need by (1 - cap gains rate) to determine the gross BTC to sell, accounting for the tax owed on each sale.

If BTC's projected growth rate is less than your withdrawal rate plus inflation, your holdings deplete over time. Estate value of zero means your BTC ran out before your life expectancy - the 'Funds run out' verdict. Increase your BTC accumulation, reduce annual expenses, or model a higher growth rate to see what it takes to fund the full retirement.

This calculator models a Bitcoin-only scenario for clarity, but most financial planners recommend diversification. Bitcoin should typically be part of a broader retirement plan that includes traditional assets. Use this calculator to understand your Bitcoin requirements within a diversified strategy, not as the sole basis for retirement planning.